Tuesday, January 4, 2011

If you don't like the weather, wait five minutes

Okay, so now I am on the economy rant.

Lately the chorus has been lamenting the 'fact' (notice the parentheses) that Canada's economy is lagging behind other G7 nations.

Egad, how can this be? Weren't we the calm port in a stormy sea? Weren't we the epitomy of fiscal probity in a world gone mad?

As usual, people fit the facts to their opinions, rather than vice versa. In my humble and unvarnished opinion, neither the caffeine driven cheerleaders nor the Greek Chorus tripped out on Zoloft were right. The porridge was neither too hot nor cold, Goldilocks.

At the same time we are told that we are lagging the US, Goldman Sachs now says the humble loonie will top US $1.05.

So, our GDP lagging the US indicates weakness, but a rising currency indicates strength. It's flip a coin time, folks.

The truth is this. The rest of the G7 is still priming the pump and we aren't. Face it, if you are sprinting the 100 meters, and all of your opponents have just given themselves an injection of human growth hormone, cocaine, amphetamine, bull semen or Jack Daniels, you are likely to get your clock cleaned.

We are slow on a percentage basis for two reasons:

1. Other countries dropped further in the meltdown, so their gains will register higher. C'mon folks - it's like saying that 100% of ten is bigger than 10% of one hundred.

2. Unlike our friends, we are not spending money like a drunken sailor on shoreleave. While the feds are bringing in deficit numbers that are below last year's estimates, everybody else is growing their debt, or their money supply.

In the end, the other G7 nations will no longer be able to give their motor another shot of nitrous oxide, and they'll have to deal with the fact that their reliance on those shots has burned out their pistons.

So, to sum up - how can Canada regain its title of the strongest economy in the G7?

Easy - just like we used to say about the weather in Dawson Creek, BC - If you don't like it, just wait five minutes.