Mark Twain once observed that even if history does not repeat itself, it does tend to rhyme. Even when pundits describe the current economic situation as ‘unprecedented’, there are still comparisons made to the Great Depression of the 1930’s. The one thing, however, that seems to garner universal agreement, is the idea that things shall never be the same again. True, we may be greeted by different singers and different orchestral arrangements, but, alas, the song remains the same.
If one wishes to make an educated guess on what the remained of the 21st century will look like, Peter Clarke offers one in his book, “The Last Thousand Days of the British Empire.” After the First World War, Britain stood at the apex of its power, which had been gradually been building for three centuries, and yet, within three decades, it would rest at its nadir, and the global order underwent changes the scope of which had not been seen since the end of the Napoleonic Wars, and the Concert of Europe.
Britain would enter this process more powerful than any other nation on earth, and would leave it a nation relegated to a second tier status, behind the United States and the Soviet Union. A mixture of economic decline, war, indebtedness, the rise of competing powers, and the cost of maintaining control over vast swaths of territory was a powerful and poisonous cocktail that drained the resources of a country, and the energy of her people. The real damage, was in fact, psychological. After winning global wars, and proudly proclaiming that “the sun shall never set on the British Empire”, it was a humiliation that would scar Britons for more than a generation. The end of Empire Preference and the move toward the EEC can very much be seen in the context of a people struggling with an unsure future at the same time as coming to terms with their past.
The United States now finds itself in a similar set of circumstances. The rise of China, India, and Brazil, along with a more strident Russia creates the nascent stages of a new economic multipolarity. Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are the better part of a decade old, with no real signs of a positive resolution. The US government has, through a combination of banking bailouts, exponential spending increases, and good old fashioned porkbarrelling, increased its liabilities to an alarming level – something that is bound to worsen as the Baby Boomers begin to collect Social Security and use Medicare. On top of this is the maintenance of a military that receives more money than those of the next dozen or so nations combined – a military that continues to deploy forces to places like Korea and Germany, where operations first began when today’s retirees were still in diapers.
Naysayers will argue that America is resilient due to its resources and its exceptionalism, due in part to its people and their industry. They will also counter that everyone will suffer if America suffers. This is true, to a point.
Britain did not fall into complete oblivion, and neither will America. And yes, the American people are remarkably adaptable and enduring. These qualities, however, are not genetically predetermined by what passport one holds, or what flag one salutes. America is great, but it does not have a monopoly on greatness. That all of the nations of the world will suffer in such an environment is also correct, but the question is not whether everyone falls together. Rather, it is who bounces back, how soon, and how high?
In the post World War II era, the United States and the Soviet Union bounced back the quickest, and the highest. The question in 2009 is who will do it this time?
Friday, July 10, 2009
Monday, June 1, 2009
Stronach's vision
Based on the headlines in the Saturday papers, it appears that Frank Stronach’s vision for Opel / Vauxhall is pretty much what I predicted, although I have to confess that I had a little better tool than a crystal ball.
First, despite his Austrian origins, Stronach is fiercely proud of being Canadian. His bankrolling of the “Next Great Prime Minister” program does telegraph his intent, as does his daughter’s choice of a career in politics. Belinda’s time in Ottawa was, admittedly, controversial, and she has as many naysayers as fans, but clearly she was raised in a household where service in Parliament was considered noble, and that speaks to pride of citizenship as well.
One can also look at many of the former politicians, Liberal and Tory alike, who have served in various capacities at Magna – from the board of directors to positions within the firm.
My own anecdote comes from my association with Sinclair Stevens and the Commonwealth Advantage campaign. One success was to convince Magna to locate a parts manufacturing plant in a particular Commonwealth jurisdiction where the Japanese automakers outsourced a lot of their manufacturing for their domestic market.
What I know is that Magna is a company run by a Canadian nationalist who understands the importance of the Commonwealth as a trading and investment network. This is why I think that the odds of them using the Vauxhall and Opel brands to crack into Canada and other Commonwealth markets is remarkably high.
This would be good news for GM dealers in Canada who now face being mothballed, auto workers who face working for a company that is majority controlled by Washington and an American union and that needs to cut operations, and for British autoworkers who fear the future of the Vauxhall plants at Ellsmere Ports and Luton.
Mind you, I do need a crystal ball for that prediction…
First, despite his Austrian origins, Stronach is fiercely proud of being Canadian. His bankrolling of the “Next Great Prime Minister” program does telegraph his intent, as does his daughter’s choice of a career in politics. Belinda’s time in Ottawa was, admittedly, controversial, and she has as many naysayers as fans, but clearly she was raised in a household where service in Parliament was considered noble, and that speaks to pride of citizenship as well.
One can also look at many of the former politicians, Liberal and Tory alike, who have served in various capacities at Magna – from the board of directors to positions within the firm.
My own anecdote comes from my association with Sinclair Stevens and the Commonwealth Advantage campaign. One success was to convince Magna to locate a parts manufacturing plant in a particular Commonwealth jurisdiction where the Japanese automakers outsourced a lot of their manufacturing for their domestic market.
What I know is that Magna is a company run by a Canadian nationalist who understands the importance of the Commonwealth as a trading and investment network. This is why I think that the odds of them using the Vauxhall and Opel brands to crack into Canada and other Commonwealth markets is remarkably high.
This would be good news for GM dealers in Canada who now face being mothballed, auto workers who face working for a company that is majority controlled by Washington and an American union and that needs to cut operations, and for British autoworkers who fear the future of the Vauxhall plants at Ellsmere Ports and Luton.
Mind you, I do need a crystal ball for that prediction…
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Where can I invest in a Vauxhall franchise?
At present, there is much to-and-fro –ing over the fate of the once mighty General Motors, and, of course, of the fates of those so closely aligned with it.
Every report on the proposed restructuring of GM involves major stakes being held by the United Auto Workers and the US government. While Ottawa and Queen’s Park are bound to pony up some cash, their influence in the new company will be marginal. That fact may become painfully clear when layoffs and plant closures are on the table.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to discern that a company that is controlled mostly by Washington and an American trade union will not look to north of the border to exact the necessary cuts. After all, we see how good President Obama’s assurances over the application of the “Buy American” clause in their stimulus bill were.
Yes, the demise of GM could potentially lead to the demise of the Canadian industry – or maybe its rebirth?
As we speak, there is a very good chance that Magna may end up taking over GM’s European operations – including the Opel, Vauxhall, and Saab brands.
Maybe I am a bit naïve, but if an American dominated company wants to pull manufacturing out of Canada, and a Canadian company now controls car brands that are, on the whole, more energy efficient, and technologically advanced than their North American cousins, it seems like a no brainer.
If the Yanks close a GM plant in Canada, let the federal and provincial governments do what it takes to help Magna retool the lines, and start manufacturing Opels, Vauxhalls and Saabs for the North American market.
My dad once owned a Vauxhall that he purchased used from the GM dealer in Verona, Ontario. They have sold them here before, and they could do it again.
Besides, nothing warms my heart like seeing a rebirth of a proud Commonwealth brand!
Every report on the proposed restructuring of GM involves major stakes being held by the United Auto Workers and the US government. While Ottawa and Queen’s Park are bound to pony up some cash, their influence in the new company will be marginal. That fact may become painfully clear when layoffs and plant closures are on the table.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to discern that a company that is controlled mostly by Washington and an American trade union will not look to north of the border to exact the necessary cuts. After all, we see how good President Obama’s assurances over the application of the “Buy American” clause in their stimulus bill were.
Yes, the demise of GM could potentially lead to the demise of the Canadian industry – or maybe its rebirth?
As we speak, there is a very good chance that Magna may end up taking over GM’s European operations – including the Opel, Vauxhall, and Saab brands.
Maybe I am a bit naïve, but if an American dominated company wants to pull manufacturing out of Canada, and a Canadian company now controls car brands that are, on the whole, more energy efficient, and technologically advanced than their North American cousins, it seems like a no brainer.
If the Yanks close a GM plant in Canada, let the federal and provincial governments do what it takes to help Magna retool the lines, and start manufacturing Opels, Vauxhalls and Saabs for the North American market.
My dad once owned a Vauxhall that he purchased used from the GM dealer in Verona, Ontario. They have sold them here before, and they could do it again.
Besides, nothing warms my heart like seeing a rebirth of a proud Commonwealth brand!
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
The Commonwealth, Conrad Black, and a canoe...
I must confess that I have neglected this journal for quite some time. What I have noticed about life, or at least my own specifically, is that it does not progress at a steady pace, but, like some rollercoaster from hell, it stops and starts with dramatic rapidity.
Nevertheless, there are some things that I want to share.
First, it looks like a paper I wrote some time ago is being included in an edited work. Dr. Mark Baimbridge, of the University of Bradford, in England, is editing a collection called “Britain in a Global World”. I was asked if a paper I wrote on the prospects for Canada – UK trade could be included. Naturally, I said yes, although it is hard for me to believe that my essay is worthy of this project. I hope it is a success for the sake of Dr. Baimbridge and those involved.
Second, I have had some passing interest in the elections for the European Parliament on June 4th. Because of my writing on Commonwealth trade, I have had occasion to meet with, discuss, and make friends with several British MP’s and MEP’s from the various UK parties. Although, as a Canadian, I really have no opinion on who should win, or whether Britain should define its EU status, it is a matter of some satisfaction that one of the parties has actually put the thesis of my book in their manifesto. Two gentlemen from that party, from whom I have had many communications over the past couple of years, look as though they will be elected to the European Parliament next week. While I hope they succeed, I sincerely hope it is not at the expense of sitting MEP’s from other parties who are equally enthusiastic about the idea, and for whom I have a great deal of admiration.
Lastly, I want to mention the recent news concerning the US Supreme Court’s agreement to hear the appeal of the conviction of Conrad Black. I have read a lot of to and fro concerning this development. Sadly, a lot of it devolves into a commentary on Lord Black’s persona, rather than the facts of the case. That is bad enough, in itself, but even worse when much of the opinion is based on heresay and third- and fourth-hand opinion.
Almost three weeks to the day of the Supreme Court’s decision, I was in Florida. I had taken a side trip to Coleman, and had a very interesting and pleasant visit with Conrad Black for a couple of hours. Lord Black is a keen proponent of the Commonwealth, and has written on the subject, and my association with him came from this shared interest. We have corresponded over the years on primarily this topic, and was glad to have an opportunity to sit down with him and talk about a range of topics.
Despite what the chattering classes say, I have always found him to be a very open and accessible to talk with. Personally, I have seen more arrogant and conceited behaviour on the streets of the town I work in and live near than I have ever seen from Lord Black.
He’s a smart man, well read and with a prodigious handle on the English language. Call it intimidating or impressive, but arrogant? Not on your life. This supposedly ‘elitist’ man, even before the court proceedings at Chicago, didn’t think it beneath himself to associate with the grandson of an eastern Ontario dairy farmer.
As someone who considers himself a friend of Conrad Black, I can only hope that the Supreme Court’s willingness to entertain an appeal brings him one step closer to a vindication.
Anyhow, at present, beyond the usual activities of home and hearth, work, and politics, I am about half-way through the first draft of a manuscript. It is fiction this time, which I am finding both easier and more challenging – if that makes sense. It has political overtones, and is meant to be funny, so we’ll see if it actually accomplishes that feat.
Spring is a time of new beginnings at Cole Lake, and thoughts turn to the warm days of summer – of boating and barbeques, of good friends and long sunsets.
This weekend marks the third anniversary of my grandfather’s passing. His grandfather originally settled our land, and I was honoured to become the 5th generation to carry on. What stands out for me were the times he would take me canoeing around the shores of the lake. When it gets warmer, I think I’ll dig that same canoe out and take my kids on that same trip. It seems like the best memorial I can think of.
Nevertheless, there are some things that I want to share.
First, it looks like a paper I wrote some time ago is being included in an edited work. Dr. Mark Baimbridge, of the University of Bradford, in England, is editing a collection called “Britain in a Global World”. I was asked if a paper I wrote on the prospects for Canada – UK trade could be included. Naturally, I said yes, although it is hard for me to believe that my essay is worthy of this project. I hope it is a success for the sake of Dr. Baimbridge and those involved.
Second, I have had some passing interest in the elections for the European Parliament on June 4th. Because of my writing on Commonwealth trade, I have had occasion to meet with, discuss, and make friends with several British MP’s and MEP’s from the various UK parties. Although, as a Canadian, I really have no opinion on who should win, or whether Britain should define its EU status, it is a matter of some satisfaction that one of the parties has actually put the thesis of my book in their manifesto. Two gentlemen from that party, from whom I have had many communications over the past couple of years, look as though they will be elected to the European Parliament next week. While I hope they succeed, I sincerely hope it is not at the expense of sitting MEP’s from other parties who are equally enthusiastic about the idea, and for whom I have a great deal of admiration.
Lastly, I want to mention the recent news concerning the US Supreme Court’s agreement to hear the appeal of the conviction of Conrad Black. I have read a lot of to and fro concerning this development. Sadly, a lot of it devolves into a commentary on Lord Black’s persona, rather than the facts of the case. That is bad enough, in itself, but even worse when much of the opinion is based on heresay and third- and fourth-hand opinion.
Almost three weeks to the day of the Supreme Court’s decision, I was in Florida. I had taken a side trip to Coleman, and had a very interesting and pleasant visit with Conrad Black for a couple of hours. Lord Black is a keen proponent of the Commonwealth, and has written on the subject, and my association with him came from this shared interest. We have corresponded over the years on primarily this topic, and was glad to have an opportunity to sit down with him and talk about a range of topics.
Despite what the chattering classes say, I have always found him to be a very open and accessible to talk with. Personally, I have seen more arrogant and conceited behaviour on the streets of the town I work in and live near than I have ever seen from Lord Black.
He’s a smart man, well read and with a prodigious handle on the English language. Call it intimidating or impressive, but arrogant? Not on your life. This supposedly ‘elitist’ man, even before the court proceedings at Chicago, didn’t think it beneath himself to associate with the grandson of an eastern Ontario dairy farmer.
As someone who considers himself a friend of Conrad Black, I can only hope that the Supreme Court’s willingness to entertain an appeal brings him one step closer to a vindication.
Anyhow, at present, beyond the usual activities of home and hearth, work, and politics, I am about half-way through the first draft of a manuscript. It is fiction this time, which I am finding both easier and more challenging – if that makes sense. It has political overtones, and is meant to be funny, so we’ll see if it actually accomplishes that feat.
Spring is a time of new beginnings at Cole Lake, and thoughts turn to the warm days of summer – of boating and barbeques, of good friends and long sunsets.
This weekend marks the third anniversary of my grandfather’s passing. His grandfather originally settled our land, and I was honoured to become the 5th generation to carry on. What stands out for me were the times he would take me canoeing around the shores of the lake. When it gets warmer, I think I’ll dig that same canoe out and take my kids on that same trip. It seems like the best memorial I can think of.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Boy, I guess President Obama 'learned' Stephen Harper a thing or two...
During the last federal election, on October 7, 2008, Prime Minister Stephen Harper did an interview with CBC’s Peter Mansbridge about the unfolding economic crisis. In particular, he asked the PM about the impact that a collapsing stock market was having on Canadians – from retirees living off their RRSP investments, to virtually everyone else whose financial plans for their golden years were put in a tail spin.
Harper said many things about the situation, but what seized the ire and anger of the left was the observation that “there’s probably some great buying opportunities emerging in the stock market as a consequence of all this panic.”
Liberals and New Democrats were apoplectic over what they considered to be such an insensitive and callous remark.
Now, we learn that US President Barack Obama pretty much said the same thing yesterday:
“In comments that gave a temporary lift to battered stock prices, Mr. Obama also said there were "potentially good deals" to be found at the market's current depressed levels.”
Now, gauging how Taliban Jack, among others, will try to square the reality of words first uttered by the evil Mr. Harper now passing the lips of the sainted Mr. Obama, is already being contemplated. Kelly McParland’s blog in the National Post has already covered it better than I could, and I will not go further.
My point is that many Canadians who have an unnatural antipathy of all things Conservative, need to reconcile a lot of logical conflicts.
Case in point. When President Obama came to Ottawa, many on the left were waxing on about the possibility that he could ‘influence’ Harper. Like a messiah performing a laying of hands, our Prime Minister would be transformed and illuminated.
We may never know how much influence Obama had on Harper, but a curious thing happened after Barack returned from Ottawa. His team presented a budget to Congress that included a number of new initiatives.
On the floor of the Congress, underneath the klieg lights, and before millions of American television viewers, he delivered an address that included the following:
“To preserve our long-term fiscal health, we must also address the growing costs in Medicare and Social Security. Comprehensive health care reform is the best way to strengthen Medicare for years to come. And we must also begin a conversation on how to do the same for Social Security, while creating tax-free universal savings accounts for all Americans.”
Excuse me? Tax Free Savings Accounts? As in TFSA’s? As in last year’s federal budget? As in the kind of account that my own wife already opened weeks ago and has a small balance? That kind of account?
Looking on the bright side, it appears to be a win-win proposition.
Those who answer in polls that they would rather have Obama as Prime Minister than Stephen Harper can rest easy that Mr. Obama is exerting all of this 'influence', while those of us who like Harper can rest assured that Mr. Obama's 'influence', in many cases, was simply a rehash of the PM's playbook.
Harper said many things about the situation, but what seized the ire and anger of the left was the observation that “there’s probably some great buying opportunities emerging in the stock market as a consequence of all this panic.”
Liberals and New Democrats were apoplectic over what they considered to be such an insensitive and callous remark.
Now, we learn that US President Barack Obama pretty much said the same thing yesterday:
“In comments that gave a temporary lift to battered stock prices, Mr. Obama also said there were "potentially good deals" to be found at the market's current depressed levels.”
Now, gauging how Taliban Jack, among others, will try to square the reality of words first uttered by the evil Mr. Harper now passing the lips of the sainted Mr. Obama, is already being contemplated. Kelly McParland’s blog in the National Post has already covered it better than I could, and I will not go further.
My point is that many Canadians who have an unnatural antipathy of all things Conservative, need to reconcile a lot of logical conflicts.
Case in point. When President Obama came to Ottawa, many on the left were waxing on about the possibility that he could ‘influence’ Harper. Like a messiah performing a laying of hands, our Prime Minister would be transformed and illuminated.
We may never know how much influence Obama had on Harper, but a curious thing happened after Barack returned from Ottawa. His team presented a budget to Congress that included a number of new initiatives.
On the floor of the Congress, underneath the klieg lights, and before millions of American television viewers, he delivered an address that included the following:
“To preserve our long-term fiscal health, we must also address the growing costs in Medicare and Social Security. Comprehensive health care reform is the best way to strengthen Medicare for years to come. And we must also begin a conversation on how to do the same for Social Security, while creating tax-free universal savings accounts for all Americans.”
Excuse me? Tax Free Savings Accounts? As in TFSA’s? As in last year’s federal budget? As in the kind of account that my own wife already opened weeks ago and has a small balance? That kind of account?
Looking on the bright side, it appears to be a win-win proposition.
Those who answer in polls that they would rather have Obama as Prime Minister than Stephen Harper can rest easy that Mr. Obama is exerting all of this 'influence', while those of us who like Harper can rest assured that Mr. Obama's 'influence', in many cases, was simply a rehash of the PM's playbook.
Monday, February 2, 2009
3 1/2 Weeks
Today marks the first day in three weeks that I feel somewhat human. An innocent case of the sniffles carried into our home by my precocious daughter manifested itself into a wonderful lung infection for yours truly. After two visits to the doctor, antibiotics, sinus medication, Halls cough drops and the magical elixir called Buckley's (I won't say how many bottles), I am almost to the point which I have associated with the word 'normal' (highly subjective, of course).
The last interesting thing I did was participate in what was known as an 'Agenda Camp'. The public broadcaster in Ontario, TVO, has a current affairs program called "The Agenda With Steve Paikin". A live broadcast took place on January 19th from Queen's University on the subject of Agriculture and the Rural Economy. Leading up to the broadcast, was this event - a day-long session on the 18th - of which I had a chance to participate.
My contribution to the broadcast was a six second soundbite at the beginning of the broadcast, which I enjoyed from my sick bed.
My hope is that viewers really took some insight on the challenges that farmers and the agrifood sector face.
The one point I tried to make during one of the sessions was that, according to Pulitzer Prize winning author Jared Diamond - in his book 'Collapse', the average North American farmer has increased his / her productivity to the point where they produce enough surplus to feed 120 people.
We talk about productivity losses in various sectors of the economy, but we actually have not experienced one with farmers - yet.
My question was what if farmers in Canada and the US can't feed 120 non-farmers a piece? What if their productivity dropped by 5 or 10 per cent?
The modern urban economy and lifestyle only functions because people can buy food rather than have to grow it themselves. Civilizations, in the Western sense, only took off because some people were freed from having to scrounge for nourishment, and could do other things, like build roads, bridges, etc.
If farmers are unable, for any number of reasons, to maintain, or even preserve their ability to feed more than themselves, a lot of doctors, lawyers, mechanics, engineers, and the like will have to grow it themselves.
Where will we be then?
The last interesting thing I did was participate in what was known as an 'Agenda Camp'. The public broadcaster in Ontario, TVO, has a current affairs program called "The Agenda With Steve Paikin". A live broadcast took place on January 19th from Queen's University on the subject of Agriculture and the Rural Economy. Leading up to the broadcast, was this event - a day-long session on the 18th - of which I had a chance to participate.
My contribution to the broadcast was a six second soundbite at the beginning of the broadcast, which I enjoyed from my sick bed.
My hope is that viewers really took some insight on the challenges that farmers and the agrifood sector face.
The one point I tried to make during one of the sessions was that, according to Pulitzer Prize winning author Jared Diamond - in his book 'Collapse', the average North American farmer has increased his / her productivity to the point where they produce enough surplus to feed 120 people.
We talk about productivity losses in various sectors of the economy, but we actually have not experienced one with farmers - yet.
My question was what if farmers in Canada and the US can't feed 120 non-farmers a piece? What if their productivity dropped by 5 or 10 per cent?
The modern urban economy and lifestyle only functions because people can buy food rather than have to grow it themselves. Civilizations, in the Western sense, only took off because some people were freed from having to scrounge for nourishment, and could do other things, like build roads, bridges, etc.
If farmers are unable, for any number of reasons, to maintain, or even preserve their ability to feed more than themselves, a lot of doctors, lawyers, mechanics, engineers, and the like will have to grow it themselves.
Where will we be then?
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