The new and improved Cold War

In the West, we are fond of saying "the best defence is an offence". In China, 2000 years ago, Sun Tzu talked of looking strong when you are weak. In the capital of North Korea, Pyongyang, you see immaculate boulevards and street scapes only miles away from starvation and human rights violations without equal. Indeed, every civilization has its own peculiar way of masking their Achilles Heel.


The Russians, of course, are no different. They were the ones who invented the "Potemkin Village". This refers back to the actions of Field Marshall Potemkin to show Catherine the Great that Russia's modernization was on track. Along her route of travel, he had fake towns and villages (simply the 18th century equivalent of Hollywood backlots) constructed, complete with shiny happy peasants portraying more prosperous people. She appeared to be placated and the ruse was complete.

The Russians have always been skilled at showing strength at a time of weakness, and one could argue that all of the 'sturm und drang' belching out of the Kremlin is just that. Despite their bombast, Russia's leaders know they need to make friends, and get some support - somewhere.

This week, Russian President Dimitri Medvedev meets with Chinese Premier Hu Jintao to seek approval over their actions in Georgia. The Chinese have been clever enough to avoid taking sides, and instead, have issued statements urging all parties to seek a peaceful resolution.


As stated above, there are compelling reasons for Russia to want Chinese support. Unfortunately, there are equally compelling reasons for Beijing not to give it.

Beijing knows that South Ossetia and Abkhazia are international templates for Tibet and the heavily Muslim and Turkmen-dominated province of Uighur. They know that the divisibility argument can come back to haunt them big time. Despite China's growth, they are vulnerable - both politically and economically. Indeed, one main reason for the Communist Party not giving up power easily is a fear of replicating what happened with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

If Russia is an example for China, it is one in what not to do.

The other issue, and more likely the real reason, is Siberia.

China, despite its declining birth rate, still has over 1 billion people, and they have appetites for the modern trappings of life that are approximating our own. Russia, in contrast, does not have either a dynamic economy or a dynamic population. Russia's population is in clear decline, and is shrinking. Moreover, when one takes out the oil and gas sector, their economy is no more advanced than in Soviet times.

We must remember that in the 1950's and 1960's, the Russia - China border was not a safe place. Indeed Stalin and Mao -Communist comrades - did take their countries to war over it.
Today, border Russians are learning Mandarin, and Chinese entrepreneurs are opening businesses and doing trade on the Russian side.

Hu Jintao is a clever enough leader not to box himself into a corner over the 'divisibility' of states as much over the future status of this part of Russia that is becoming increasingly like China.

The Chinese think in much longer strategic terms than any of us, and it would not surprise me if the future of that region was not discussed in some form in a PRC government brief.

Then again, so does the Kremlin. Maybe that is the real reason for Russia's courting of China's support.