Come to the Liberal BBQ, and bring plenty of gasoline!

Former British Prime Minister Ted Heath coined the observation that “a week is a lifetime in politics.” Nothing that has occurred in Ottawa this past week served to refute this bold statement.

At the beginning of last week, it was the call that “the Conservative government is dead. Long live the coalition.” Today, that sort of statement is supported by those who were out of the country for the last seven days, and those who - well, we won’t go there.

Stephane Dion’s YouTube moment, which easily would have gotten any Grade 9 student an ‘F’ in computer class, only served to reinforce the view that the gap between his ambition and ability is greater than the chasm between Liberals and Tories.

This weekend, of course, we had the display of support for both sides.

The pro-coalition forces turned out about 3000 people to Nathan Phillips Square in Toronto, while at least 3500 came to Ottawa to oppose the deal. In other words, public support is overwhelmingly anti-coalition.

Think of it, you have people like Mary Walsh, of 22 Minutes fame, rock bands like Broken Social Scene – who appeal heavily to a particular demographic – and all organized with money and material from the Canadian Labour Congress, as well as Liberal and NDP riding associations. What’s more, you hold it in the middle of Canada’s largest city, where coalition partnered parties hold virtually every riding. They get 3000 brave souls.

The anti-coalition people, devoid of the backing of CanCon celebs, trade union coffers, and enjoying the support of only one party – not three – hold an event in an urban area less than a fifth the size of the GTA, and they turn out 500 more people.

So, now that the cracks in the Thousand-Year Coalition are starting to form and widen, what comes next, you may ask? Actually, plenty more, and far more interesting than what we’ve seen so far.

Now, we hear that Dion’s retirement is being fast-tracked. The “Natural Governing Party” seems so eager on this point, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ignatieff and Rae backers heading over to Stornoway and throwing Stephane’s suits out onto the snow-covered front lawn, just like the wronged spouse in some bad Hollywood romatic comedy.

Unfortunately, haste makes waste. Get rid of Dion today, and you better have someone in place ASAP.

Grit flunkies think that Iggy should get the job, and they argue that the caucus and the party’s inner sanctum can rubber stamp that move. Apparently Dominic LeBlanc has already fallen on his sword for the erstwhile MP for Etobicoke-Lakeshore, which is just as well. His bid for the Liberal leadership had the lief expectancy of one of those no-named red shirted crew members on the original ‘Star Trek’ series – the ones that got vapourized before the first commercial break.

Unfortunately, the Liberal Party had already set in motion a leadership convention, slated it for May in Vancouver, and got people like Bobby Rae all excited about the prospect of becoming the Defender of Confederation.

Saving money on renting a convention centre, subsidizing delegates, and using up all that political donation tax room for a love-in when it would be better used for an election battle is, under the circumstances, pretty smart – except for the fact that hundreds of Liberal party members signed on for a convention, not a coronation.

Thus, Iggy has his own version of the Prisoner’s Dilemma. Accept the crown, and you can no longer be the defender of democracy. The champion of the 28%+17%+10%+6% coalition will have become leader on the support of less than 1% of the party membership.

Beyond that, I am not sure that the people who signed on to back that Champion of Democracy, Bobby Rae, are going to want to join hands and sing kum-by-yah any time soon – including before the next election.

Burning Liberal voters is bad enough. It makes the difference between winning, or losing, a competitive election. Burning Liberal party members is fatal. They are the folks that man your phone banks, put up signs, and give you money. Tick them off and you are “Dead Man Campaigning.”

Dion made several egregious mistakes, and the consequences will play out for quite some time. That is done, and cannot be undone. What comes next, however, could be a good dose of kerosene on an already large campfire.

Luckily for Tories like me, we are close enough to get warm, but not enough to get sent to the emergency room…