Former British Prime Minister Ted Heath coined the observation that “a week is a lifetime in politics.” Nothing that has occurred in Ottawa this past week served to refute this bold statement.
At the beginning of last week, it was the call that “the Conservative government is dead. Long live the coalition.” Today, that sort of statement is supported by those who were out of the country for the last seven days, and those who - well, we won’t go there.
Stephane Dion’s YouTube moment, which easily would have gotten any Grade 9 student an ‘F’ in computer class, only served to reinforce the view that the gap between his ambition and ability is greater than the chasm between Liberals and Tories.
This weekend, of course, we had the display of support for both sides.
The pro-coalition forces turned out about 3000 people to Nathan Phillips Square in Toronto, while at least 3500 came to Ottawa to oppose the deal. In other words, public support is overwhelmingly anti-coalition.
Think of it, you have people like Mary Walsh, of 22 Minutes fame, rock bands like Broken Social Scene – who appeal heavily to a particular demographic – and all organized with money and material from the Canadian Labour Congress, as well as Liberal and NDP riding associations. What’s more, you hold it in the middle of Canada’s largest city, where coalition partnered parties hold virtually every riding. They get 3000 brave souls.
The anti-coalition people, devoid of the backing of CanCon celebs, trade union coffers, and enjoying the support of only one party – not three – hold an event in an urban area less than a fifth the size of the GTA, and they turn out 500 more people.
So, now that the cracks in the Thousand-Year Coalition are starting to form and widen, what comes next, you may ask? Actually, plenty more, and far more interesting than what we’ve seen so far.
Now, we hear that Dion’s retirement is being fast-tracked. The “Natural Governing Party” seems so eager on this point, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ignatieff and Rae backers heading over to Stornoway and throwing Stephane’s suits out onto the snow-covered front lawn, just like the wronged spouse in some bad Hollywood romatic comedy.
Unfortunately, haste makes waste. Get rid of Dion today, and you better have someone in place ASAP.
Grit flunkies think that Iggy should get the job, and they argue that the caucus and the party’s inner sanctum can rubber stamp that move. Apparently Dominic LeBlanc has already fallen on his sword for the erstwhile MP for Etobicoke-Lakeshore, which is just as well. His bid for the Liberal leadership had the lief expectancy of one of those no-named red shirted crew members on the original ‘Star Trek’ series – the ones that got vapourized before the first commercial break.
Unfortunately, the Liberal Party had already set in motion a leadership convention, slated it for May in Vancouver, and got people like Bobby Rae all excited about the prospect of becoming the Defender of Confederation.
Saving money on renting a convention centre, subsidizing delegates, and using up all that political donation tax room for a love-in when it would be better used for an election battle is, under the circumstances, pretty smart – except for the fact that hundreds of Liberal party members signed on for a convention, not a coronation.
Thus, Iggy has his own version of the Prisoner’s Dilemma. Accept the crown, and you can no longer be the defender of democracy. The champion of the 28%+17%+10%+6% coalition will have become leader on the support of less than 1% of the party membership.
Beyond that, I am not sure that the people who signed on to back that Champion of Democracy, Bobby Rae, are going to want to join hands and sing kum-by-yah any time soon – including before the next election.
Burning Liberal voters is bad enough. It makes the difference between winning, or losing, a competitive election. Burning Liberal party members is fatal. They are the folks that man your phone banks, put up signs, and give you money. Tick them off and you are “Dead Man Campaigning.”
Dion made several egregious mistakes, and the consequences will play out for quite some time. That is done, and cannot be undone. What comes next, however, could be a good dose of kerosene on an already large campfire.
Luckily for Tories like me, we are close enough to get warm, but not enough to get sent to the emergency room…
Showing posts with label Ottawa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ottawa. Show all posts
Monday, December 8, 2008
Thursday, December 4, 2008
And the winner is...
Robert Fife of CTV News!
"Huh?", you ask?
Well, like many Canadians, the boob tube in Cole Lake was turned on to see the sales pitches from the various leaders over the current crisis.
Even if I am biased, Harper looked professional and poised. He even indicated that he was open to input from the opposition parties. I see Jeffrey Simpson of the Globe and Mail characterized it as mean-spirited. I guess unless Harper is willing to lay down on the centre line of Rideau Street and let all manner of traffic run over him, he's not showing enough contrition for them.
Anyhoo, great move by Dion - air a grainy YouTube styled video that looks like it was produced by a Grade 9 student in their parents basement (my apologies, they would have had better production values) and have it sent to the networks at least 10-15 minutes late - lots of time for the various anchors and reporters to ad-lib until somebody finally mentions that this doesn't look very good on Dion.
They all said that, and it was painfully obvious to anyone exposed to it.
The award goes to Robert Fife because he was the first journalist to point out the thing that made my wife and I laugh...The spine of a book on the shelf to the upper left of Dion's head that read in bold letters "HOT AIR".
I wondered who would mention it, and indicate that it wasn't very smart to have that sitting within the gaze of the cameras.
Hat's off to you Bob. You said it loud, and you said it first!
"Huh?", you ask?
Well, like many Canadians, the boob tube in Cole Lake was turned on to see the sales pitches from the various leaders over the current crisis.
Even if I am biased, Harper looked professional and poised. He even indicated that he was open to input from the opposition parties. I see Jeffrey Simpson of the Globe and Mail characterized it as mean-spirited. I guess unless Harper is willing to lay down on the centre line of Rideau Street and let all manner of traffic run over him, he's not showing enough contrition for them.
Anyhoo, great move by Dion - air a grainy YouTube styled video that looks like it was produced by a Grade 9 student in their parents basement (my apologies, they would have had better production values) and have it sent to the networks at least 10-15 minutes late - lots of time for the various anchors and reporters to ad-lib until somebody finally mentions that this doesn't look very good on Dion.
They all said that, and it was painfully obvious to anyone exposed to it.
The award goes to Robert Fife because he was the first journalist to point out the thing that made my wife and I laugh...The spine of a book on the shelf to the upper left of Dion's head that read in bold letters "HOT AIR".
I wondered who would mention it, and indicate that it wasn't very smart to have that sitting within the gaze of the cameras.
Hat's off to you Bob. You said it loud, and you said it first!
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Thoughts on the "Green Shift"
So, Stephane Dion has released what he hopes will be, to borrow a computing term, the 'killer app' that delivers the Liberals back to power in Ottawa.
There are, of course, three approaches I could take:
1. To say "Hey, way to go with the copyright infringement!";
2. Say "What global warming? It's all sunspots, or farting cows"; or,
3. Argue some major concerns about the plan
Since there is a tendency to dumb down rhetoric as it is, I really think I should attempt to follow #3 as closely as my pea-sized brain allows.
The main thrust of the plan seems to be to tax people for the production of CO2, and then offset the tax with cuts to income tax. Sounds reasonable. You punish bad behaviour (pollution) and reward good behaviour (hard work) with one stroke of the pen. Heck, on that level, there's something attractive about it to an old Tory soul like me.
Unfortunately, as Newton discovered in Physics, in politics and economics, every action has an equal and opposite reaction.
The questions are these - Who pollutes? Who pays? What are the unintended consequences? Last, but certainly not least, will it make a difference?
First, who pollutes? Well, cities do. They have all of the factories, manufacturing plants, and over 80 percent of Canada's population. Sure, we rural people 'pollute' as we grow the food that other eat, but according to author Jared Diamond in his book "Collapse", the typical US farmer grows enough to feed 125 people (I am sure the Canadian number is similar). If people are going to divide the 'carbon footprint' of a charter flight that takes rich boomers to deep glaze their torsos in the Dominican Republic among the passengers, I am sure that we can divvy up the carbon that the 'dirty' farmer produces among all those who fill their faces without ever having to drive a tractor or pull a weed.
Unfortunately, while the urban dweller can hop on a bus or subway, the farmer cannot. While the urban dweller's employer - depending on the industry - may have the option of reducing their use of fossil fuel, the farmer does not (although if sweat and tears had some octane content, those who feed us would have enough fuel to be self-sufficient).
So, while the 80 percent of Canadians who live in the world of concrete and glass could do a little 'substitution strategy' to reduce their carbon tax hit, those who live in the rural areas, where incomes are generally lower, and where transportation costs are higher, will not be so lucky.
As with anything in economics, higher production costs will get passed on, and even the burghers of Toronto will end up paying more for their burgers. With oil at nearly $140, they are already.
But I'll get my income tax cut, and that will make up for it, you will say. Well, according to the Liberal "Green Shift" site, my rural family will save about $130 a month in income tax, and a comparable urban family would get about $110 per month extra.
Okay, so the good folks that ragged out Harper about the Child Care Benefit, saying "$100 a month won't cover the cost of a sitter or daycare" now argue that $10 more than that will cover higher fuel prices for your car, higher prices for everything that has to be shipped by a truck, or grown in a field, as well as the very stuff that warms your house prevents you and your family from suffering hypothermia during those wonderful Canadian winters of ours.
Of course, that's if you even file income tax, otherwise you are doubly screwed.
Well, at least we'll get our CO2 emissions under control...But wait, according to the experts, the impact will be negligible...If we fully implemented Kyoto, we would only delay, and not stop, the trend, and it would only be a 5 year stall.
The Green Shift is really nothing more than bad economics and bad policy wrapped up in good intentions, making it all the more worse as it assumes a "holier-than-thou" mantle.
Want an alternative? Well, Statistics Canada says that 55 percent of commuters in Toronto drive to work. Well, how about you leave the Land Rover in the driveway and ride the Red Rocket / GO Train / TTC bus to work every day, and quit expecting others to pick up the tab for your environmentally unsustainable lifestyle. Expand that to every Canadian city with a population over 200,000 and a good public transit infrastructure, and see how quickly the CO2 drops.
That is the only shift that we need. Anything else is a shaft.
There are, of course, three approaches I could take:
1. To say "Hey, way to go with the copyright infringement!";
2. Say "What global warming? It's all sunspots, or farting cows"; or,
3. Argue some major concerns about the plan
Since there is a tendency to dumb down rhetoric as it is, I really think I should attempt to follow #3 as closely as my pea-sized brain allows.
The main thrust of the plan seems to be to tax people for the production of CO2, and then offset the tax with cuts to income tax. Sounds reasonable. You punish bad behaviour (pollution) and reward good behaviour (hard work) with one stroke of the pen. Heck, on that level, there's something attractive about it to an old Tory soul like me.
Unfortunately, as Newton discovered in Physics, in politics and economics, every action has an equal and opposite reaction.
The questions are these - Who pollutes? Who pays? What are the unintended consequences? Last, but certainly not least, will it make a difference?
First, who pollutes? Well, cities do. They have all of the factories, manufacturing plants, and over 80 percent of Canada's population. Sure, we rural people 'pollute' as we grow the food that other eat, but according to author Jared Diamond in his book "Collapse", the typical US farmer grows enough to feed 125 people (I am sure the Canadian number is similar). If people are going to divide the 'carbon footprint' of a charter flight that takes rich boomers to deep glaze their torsos in the Dominican Republic among the passengers, I am sure that we can divvy up the carbon that the 'dirty' farmer produces among all those who fill their faces without ever having to drive a tractor or pull a weed.
Unfortunately, while the urban dweller can hop on a bus or subway, the farmer cannot. While the urban dweller's employer - depending on the industry - may have the option of reducing their use of fossil fuel, the farmer does not (although if sweat and tears had some octane content, those who feed us would have enough fuel to be self-sufficient).
So, while the 80 percent of Canadians who live in the world of concrete and glass could do a little 'substitution strategy' to reduce their carbon tax hit, those who live in the rural areas, where incomes are generally lower, and where transportation costs are higher, will not be so lucky.
As with anything in economics, higher production costs will get passed on, and even the burghers of Toronto will end up paying more for their burgers. With oil at nearly $140, they are already.
But I'll get my income tax cut, and that will make up for it, you will say. Well, according to the Liberal "Green Shift" site, my rural family will save about $130 a month in income tax, and a comparable urban family would get about $110 per month extra.
Okay, so the good folks that ragged out Harper about the Child Care Benefit, saying "$100 a month won't cover the cost of a sitter or daycare" now argue that $10 more than that will cover higher fuel prices for your car, higher prices for everything that has to be shipped by a truck, or grown in a field, as well as the very stuff that warms your house prevents you and your family from suffering hypothermia during those wonderful Canadian winters of ours.
Of course, that's if you even file income tax, otherwise you are doubly screwed.
Well, at least we'll get our CO2 emissions under control...But wait, according to the experts, the impact will be negligible...If we fully implemented Kyoto, we would only delay, and not stop, the trend, and it would only be a 5 year stall.
The Green Shift is really nothing more than bad economics and bad policy wrapped up in good intentions, making it all the more worse as it assumes a "holier-than-thou" mantle.
Want an alternative? Well, Statistics Canada says that 55 percent of commuters in Toronto drive to work. Well, how about you leave the Land Rover in the driveway and ride the Red Rocket / GO Train / TTC bus to work every day, and quit expecting others to pick up the tab for your environmentally unsustainable lifestyle. Expand that to every Canadian city with a population over 200,000 and a good public transit infrastructure, and see how quickly the CO2 drops.
That is the only shift that we need. Anything else is a shaft.
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